Robert Half has been bleeding momentum for a while, and the long-term picture is even worse. Their core business, staffing and placement — is in structural decline. We’re not just talking about a cyclical downturn where companies pull back on hiring until confidence returns. This is a model that AI is actively dismantling.
AI-driven recruitment platforms are doing resume screening, candidate matching, and even first-round interviews faster, cheaper, and with fewer errors than a human recruiter. That eats directly into Robert Half’s bread and butter. When you combine that with the fact that corporate clients are already dragging their feet on hiring decisions, you get a business that’s shrinking in both volume and relevance.
Financials are already showing the cracks. Revenue is sliding year over year, permanent placements are off sharply, and operating margins are compressing. SG&A is chewing up a larger share of revenue, which means they’re spending more just to stand still. Protiviti, their consulting arm, looks better on the surface, but it’s not growing fast enough to offset the deterioration in talent solutions.
Long-term, this is a staffing company facing obsolescence. They don’t have a defensible moat against AI platforms or larger HR tech players. Short-term, the earnings trend is weak, clients are cautious, and the cycle isn’t turning in their favor.
Price target: Sub-$30s by December feels realistic. With the stock already languishing in the mid-30s, all it takes is one more weak quarter and a soft labor market print for this to unwind.